A 13-Week Cash Flow Forecast for a Small Team

A 13-week cash flow forecast lists every dollar you expect to come in and go out, week by week, for the next quarter. For a small team it answers one question the profit and loss statement cannot: will there be enough in the bank on the Friday payroll runs.

What is a 13-week cash flow forecast?

A 13-week cash flow forecast is a weekly table of expected cash receipts and cash payments covering roughly one quarter: 13 weeks is 91 days. Each column is a week. Each row is a source of cash in or a payment out. The bottom line of each column is the bank balance you expect at the end of that week.

It differs from the profit and loss statement in one way that matters. An accrual-basis P&L records revenue when you earn it. The forecast records cash when it actually moves. (source) A $20,000 project billed in March and paid in May shows up in May, which is exactly the timing an accrual P&L hides.

Why weekly instead of monthly?

Weekly columns catch the timing problems a monthly view averages away. A month can end with a healthy balance even though payroll, rent and a large supplier bill all landed in the first week, before any client payments arrived. The monthly total looks fine. The second Friday of the month is where the account actually runs short.

Small businesses feel this more than large ones because their payments are lumpy. One client paying ten days late can be the difference between covering payroll and moving money from a credit line. A weekly view shows that week coming while there is still time to chase the invoice or move a bill.

What goes into the forecast?

Start with your opening bank balance, then list receipts and payments by week. Use real dates from your invoices, payroll calendar and bills, not monthly averages. The forecast is only as good as the timing of each line, so every receipt should be tied to a specific invoice and its realistic payment date.

• Opening balance: the actual bank balance at the start of week one.
• Receipts: each open invoice placed in the week you expect payment, based on how that client has actually paid before.
• New sales: only deals that are signed, placed in the week the deposit or first invoice will be paid.
• Payroll: net wages on each pay date, plus employer taxes, withholding and benefits on the dates they are actually paid over.
• Fixed payments: rent, software, insurance, loan payments, on their real due dates.
• Variable payments: suppliers and contractors tied to specific jobs.
• Closing balance: opening balance plus receipts minus payments, carried to the next week.

Where do small-team forecasts usually go wrong?

The common failure is placing receipts on the invoice due date instead of the date that client really pays. A client on net 30 who pays in 50 days will break a forecast built on due dates. Use each client's own payment history, and the forecast gets noticeably closer to the bank balance within a few weekly updates.

The second failure is counting pipeline as cash. A deal marked likely in the CRM is not a receipt until it is signed and invoiced. Owners who put unsigned deals in the forecast end up with a model that shows a comfortable balance right up until the week it does not. The same gap explains why sales, invoices and the books show three different numbers: each system records revenue at a different moment.

How do you keep it up to date?

Update the forecast once a week, at the same time every week, and roll it forward: drop the week that just ended and add a new week thirteen. Compare last week's forecast to what actually happened in the bank. The lines that missed tell you which assumptions need fixing, usually a client's payment timing.

For a small team with a few dozen open invoices, the weekly update is a short job once the sheet exists. A spreadsheet is enough. The value is not the tool but the habit of looking at the next quarter's cash every week instead of finding out at month end.

A forecast that places receipts on due dates instead of real payment dates will show cash arriving weeks before it does, and the shortfall appears on a payroll Friday. Building that first set of real payment dates per client is part of what the Boost Audit does with your last 90 days of invoices, because that history is the input the forecast depends on.